Jim Klinger, concrete construction specialist The Voice Newsletter January 2022

Full disclosure:  To oversimplify enormously, philosopher Blaise Pascal approached the issue of whether or not there was a deity by saying that, if we took a leap of faith and assumed there was, and we were wrong, then we would lose nothing but a few hours of wasted prayer and adoration.  If we were right, then we would win heaven. If we assumed there was no deity, and we were right, we have neither lost nor gained anything; but if we were wrong, we have lost our eternal souls. Therefore, Pascal suggested, the only logical and intelligent course of action is to assume there is a deity.

From this bit of narrow reasoning came the concept of “Pascal’s Bet”, which refers to acting as though something exists…however slim the odds…when its failure to exist will not harm you, but its existence could affect you greatly

In the last two episodes of the ASCC VOICE, the Technical Division offered suggested ways to mitigate unsavory financial problems that can usually be prevented by a few careful keystrokes applied whilst preparing a bid proposal.  In this episode, we present typical terminology used by veteran concrete estimators. Some of it may seem a bit colorful, but we are all adults here.

Estimate Level	Description	Plus Tolerance	Minus Tolerance
1	"Cocktail Napkin"	50%	30%
2	Schematic	30%	15%
3	Design Development	20%	10%
4	75% CD	15%	5%
5	90% CD	5%	5%
6	Bid Day	perfect	perfect
7	Post-bid options	n/a	n/a

 

Estimate Levels:  The table above has been morphed from several construction and process industry sources over the years; mostly from ASTM E2616-11, “Standard Classification for Cost Estimate Classification System”.   Estimate levels range from Level 1 (“cocktail napkin”) to Level 7, which only kicks in after project award-when pricing needs to be prepared for alternates and last-minute add-ons.  The plus and minus tolerances are loosely based on ASTM E2616, with the exception of Levels 6 and 7.  Our thinking is that the estimate better be dead-nuts perfect at Level 6, and at Level 7 anyone could see plain as day that your price is right on the money.

ROM Estimate:  Rough Order of Magnitude, numbers prepared by others.

ROM Estimate:  Refined Order of Magnitude, numbers prepared by you.

SWAG Number:  Scientific, wild-assed guess.  Google it.

PIDOOMA Estimate: Pulled it directly out of my ass estimate.  Google it.

Ballpark Estimate: A number no worse than most, but probably better than some.

Should Cost Estimate:  See SWAG number, above.

Greenfield Estimate: Price based on pristine, untouched land.  Just a green field.

Brownfield Estimate:  Land has prior issues, possibly contaminated.

Upset Fee: Any higher than this and the owner will be upset.

Scary Low Estimate:  Your price is Pascal’s Bet writ large…and lost.